When imports stop for two or three weeks after a Caribbean storm, food prices jump and the poorest households are hit first. CARICOM imports 80 to 90% of the food its people eat, at a cost of more than US$6 billion a year. The World Food Programme's 2025 Caribbean Food Security and Livelihoods Survey found 3.2 million people, 42% of those surveyed, were food insecure. Every hurricane season puts the ports, roads and warehouses that carry those imports at risk.
This piece looks at the regional supply chain: imports, reserves, storage and distribution. The farm-level side, alerts to farmers and damage mapping after a storm, I cover in a separate piece on protecting Caribbean farms after Hurricane Melissa.
The numbers behind the risk
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Share of food imported, CARICOM | 80 to 90% |
| Annual food import bill | More than US$6 billion |
| Food insecure (WFP 2025 survey) | 3.2 million people, 42% of those surveyed |
| Chance of a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean in 2026 (Colorado State University, April forecast) | 35% |
| CSU 2026 season forecast | 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major |
| Average annual tropical cyclone damage, Caribbean | About US$835 million |
| Caribbean growth forecast for 2026 (Caribbean Development Bank) | 1.7% |
| Post-harvest losses, some perishables | Up to 40% |
Food security in the region has not recovered since the 2022 global food price spike. With growth forecast at 1.7%, there is little fiscal room to absorb a supply shock.
Why storms and El Niño hit the food system together
The region's dependence on imports goes back to colonial economies built around sugar, bananas and coffee for export. When sugar declined, most islands moved into tourism and services and did not rebuild food production for home markets.
A major storm then breaks every link at once:
- Ports, where most food arrives, are coastal and can close for days or weeks from surge and wind damage.
- Roads from port to market are among the first infrastructure damaged.
- Cold stores and warehouses lose power, and perishable imports spoil.
- Local farms, which could fill the gap, are flattened by the same storm.
The record is long. Five Category 5 hurricanes have hit the region in the last decade. Maria cost Dominica about 225% of its GDP in 2017. Ivan cost Jamaica over US$580 million in 2004. Beryl in 2024 affected up to 80,000 people in Grenada and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines; in Jamaica, about 160,000 people, including 37,000 children, needed help in the months afterwards, and farmers needed support to replant more than 500 hectares. After Melissa in 2025, the European Union allocated 6.5 million euros for emergency response across Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
El Niño adds a second risk. Forecasters expect hotter, drier conditions through 2026 and into 2027, which means lower reservoirs and weaker harvests for farms that survive the storms.
Four places AI helps in the regional food supply chain
1. Forecasting import needs and setting reserve levels
Demand forecasting models use past sales, seasons, population and prices to predict how much of each staple an island needs, where and when. For a government, the direct use is sizing a reserve: how many tonnes of rice, flour, cooking oil and canned protein cover a two- to three-week port closure for the whole population. Retailers and distributors can use the same models to cut both overstock waste and empty shelves.
2. Moving stock before landfall
Once a forecast track exists, models can show which ports, roads and warehouses sit in the storm's likely path. Distributors and disaster offices can then move reserves inland or to the far side of the island days before landfall, instead of waiting for roads to reopen. This needs a live list of warehouse locations, capacities and stock levels, which most islands do not yet keep in one place.
3. Cutting cold chain losses
With losses of up to 40% for some perishables, cheap temperature sensors in cold stores and trucks, plus software that flags failing units and routes stock to be sold first, are one of the lowest-cost gains on this list. They also lower the price of imported food, because less of what is bought is thrown away.
4. Routing relief after the storm
After a hurricane, relief is often coordinated by phone and spreadsheet, and some communities get nothing while supplies pile up elsewhere. Routing software fed by satellite damage maps and field reports can send trucks to the highest-need areas by roads that are still open. Humanitarian agencies already use these tools; the Caribbean needs them built into CDEMA and national disaster plans before the storm, with drivers and depots already mapped.
Protected farming: storm-resistant, but watch the power bill
Greenhouses, hydroponic units and vertical farms keep producing through bad weather, and a well-built facility can be producing again soon after a storm passes while field crops are flattened. AI control systems adjust temperature, humidity, CO2, nutrients and light automatically, and flag pests and equipment faults early.
The limits matter. Protected farming suits leafy greens, herbs, tomatoes and peppers, not rice, flour or meat, which make up much of the import bill. Outside Trinidad and Tobago, Caribbean electricity is among the most expensive in the world, often above US$0.30 per kWh, so a lit vertical farm can struggle to compete with imports. Shade houses and greenhouses that use sunlight, with solar power and battery backup, are the practical starting point. Structures also need to be rated for hurricane winds, or taken down and stored before a storm.
Here my argument is weakest. None of these tools changes the fact that the region does not grow most of its staples, and AI does not change that calculation. What it can do is shorten the gap between a storm and full shelves, and waste less of what is imported.
What CARICOM governments and food businesses should do before the next storm
- Ministries of agriculture and commerce, within 30 days: build one list of every food warehouse and cold store on the island, with location, capacity, generator status and current stock of key staples, updated weekly by the owners.
- Disaster offices with major distributors: agree a reserve target for rice, flour, oil and canned protein that covers a 21-day port closure, and a trigger (for example, a hurricane watch) at which stock moves inland.
- Distributors and supermarket chains: put temperature sensors with SMS alerts in every cold store and reefer truck, and track spoilage weekly. At under US$100 per unit for basic sensors, the payback on one saved container is quick.
- CDEMA and WFP: load the warehouse and road data into a shared routing tool before the peak of the season, and run one tabletop exercise that moves relief to three named communities.
- CARICOM agriculture ministers: take a costed regional plan for supply-chain AI and protected farming to the Caribbean Development Bank and the Green Climate Fund, starting with one or two islands so the costs are measured before the plan is scaled.
Prompts for planners
Use these with a general AI assistant to start the analysis. Check every figure it gives you against official sources.
I am a [Ministry of Agriculture official / disaster office planner / distributor] in [Jamaica / Barbados / Trinidad / Saint Lucia / Dominica / Antigua]. Estimate the tonnes of rice, flour, cooking oil and canned protein needed to feed our population for 21 days if the main port closes after a hurricane. Show your assumptions about population, daily consumption per person and current stock, so I can replace them with our own figures.
Analyse the food supply vulnerability of [island] to a Category 3 hurricane making landfall during the 2026 season. Consider port closure time, road damage between the port and main towns, cold storage power failure and local production. List the three supply chain actions that would most reduce food shortages in the 30 days after the storm.
Draft a business plan for a solar-powered protected farm on [island] growing [crop] to replace imports. Include land, hurricane-rated structures, electricity and water costs, target buyers, investment needed and payback period. Flag every assumption I need to check locally, and list financing options from the Caribbean Development Bank, the Green Climate Fund and the IDB.
Write a two-page briefing for Caribbean ministers on AI in the regional food supply chain before the 2026 hurricane season. Cover import dependence, the WFP 2025 survey results, the hurricane and El Niño outlook, four supply chain uses of AI with costs and owners, and funding sources. Keep claims to figures I can cite.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happened to CARICOM's target to cut the food import bill by 25% by 2025?
CARICOM heads of government adopted the "25 by 2025" initiative, aiming to cut the regional food import bill by 25% by 2025 through more regional production and trade. The target date has passed, and the import bill remains above US$6 billion. Check the CARICOM Secretariat's latest progress reports for country figures, and treat supply-chain AI as a way to lose less of what is imported while production grows.
Who runs the Caribbean food security survey, and where can I see the data?
The World Food Programme runs the Caribbean Food Security and Livelihoods Survey with CARICOM and CDEMA, using mobile and online questionnaires in several rounds a year. Results and dashboards are published on WFP's Caribbean pages. Because it is an online and phone survey, it may under-represent people without phones or data, so read the 42% as a figure for respondents, not a census.
How big should a national food reserve be?
Size it to the longest realistic port closure, usually two to three weeks after a major hurricane, multiplied by daily consumption of each staple for the whole population. Much of the reserve can sit in distributors' normal stock under an agreement with government, rather than in a separate state warehouse. The common mistake is setting a tonnage target without checking where the stock is physically stored and whether that site floods.
Which funders support food security and climate resilience projects in the Caribbean?
The Caribbean Development Bank is accredited to the Green Climate Fund and can take projects to it on behalf of member states. The Inter-American Development Bank, the World Bank and the EU also fund resilience and agriculture programmes. Funders ask for a costed plan, a baseline and a named implementing agency, so prepare those before approaching them.
Is protected farming worth it on a small island?
For high-value fresh produce such as lettuce, herbs, tomatoes and sweet peppers, often yes, especially for hotel and supermarket buyers who pay for consistent supply. For staples such as rice and flour, no. Run the numbers on electricity and water before building; a naturally lit greenhouse or shade house with solar power usually beats an artificially lit vertical farm at Caribbean power prices.