Jamaica's commercial banks were owed J$94 billion on credit cards as at April 2026, close to US$600 million. That is the highest figure the Bank of Jamaica has recorded, and more than double the J$40.2 billion owed in 2017. Economist Janiel McEwan set out the trend in a report published on 5 August 2026: "Banks have made borrowing much easier to say yes to, but they also have a fiduciary responsibility to lend responsibly."
The Bank of Jamaica has had the receivables data all along. What has been missing is a system that acts on each account before it slides from manageable to distressed. Banks already hold the data such a system needs.
How Jamaica's card debt reached J$94 billion
There were 435,883 credit cards in circulation at the end of 2025, according to the Bank of Jamaica. That is not a large base, so most of the growth has come from larger balances per card, as issuers raised limits for existing customers.
McEwan's report points to three causes:
- Price. Jamaican cards charge 35 to 40 percent a year, among the highest rates a Jamaican consumer will meet anywhere in the financial system. The average US card charges roughly 20 percent.
- Wages behind prices. Inflation and transport costs have pushed households to put groceries and fares on cards that used to fund occasional purchases.
- Automatic limit increases. Aggressive marketing and higher limits granted without a fresh check on whether the customer can afford them.
The arithmetic shows why balances stick. At 36 percent a year, a J$100,000 balance accrues about J$3,000 in interest a month. A J$4,000 minimum payment reduces the balance by only J$1,000, and one missed payment with a late fee can wipe that out.
McEwan was careful to say "Credit by itself is not the enemy. Used wisely, it can open doors to opportunity." Her complaint is that the system stops checking affordability after the day the card is approved.
Four uses of AI that catch distress before default
McEwan recommends tighter lending standards, limits matched to repayment capacity, restructuring for borrowers in distress, stronger central bank oversight and financial literacy programmes. Every one of those depends on a bank knowing, month by month, which cardholders are drifting into trouble.
1. Monthly affordability checks on every account
Banks assess affordability at account opening or at a limit increase, which is when an applicant looks their best. A model trained on each account's transactions, income deposits and repayment history can re-score every active card monthly and flag the warning signs: several months of minimum-only payments, cash advances replacing purchases, or a sudden drop in salary deposits. No new data is needed.
2. Credit scoring that counts remittances
Maestro AI Labs, the Kingston lab I co-founded with my brother Nicholas, built Credit Garden, a credit-scoring product that adds five years of corridor-level remittance data for eighteen Caribbean and Latin American economies. In our own validation on 12,000 historical loan outcomes, adding remittance data changed scores by an average of 302 points with no increase in the default rate. Money a household receives each month from relatives abroad is income a standard Jamaican application ignores. I should be plain that this is our own testing, not an independent evaluation, which is one reason I want a regulator to review it (see below).
3. Distress prediction for early restructuring
Restructuring only helps if it arrives before an account is 90 days late. A risk model applied to the existing book can rank each account by its chance of becoming distressed in the next 60 to 90 days, using rising utilisation, minimum-only payments and missed payments on other loans. The bank can then offer a lower rate, a payment plan or a temporary limit freeze while the customer still answers the phone.
4. Prompts in the banking app at the moment of spending
School financial literacy takes years to change behaviour. A banking app can act today: warn when a purchase will cross a limit the customer set, show what a month's interest charge costs over a year, and suggest which balance to pay first when there are several.
The Core Argument
Jamaican banks already hold the transaction history, deposit patterns and repayment record for all 435,883 cards. A model that reads that data every month can flag distress months before default, and a Caribbean lab has already tested one approach on 12,000 real loan outcomes.
What a default costs the household afterwards
The J$94 billion total is a lagging figure: it shows what has already been borrowed, not who is about to fall behind. The larger cost to a household comes later. A card default stays on a credit file and affects car loans, mortgages and small business credit for years. Catching distress at month three instead of month nine protects the bank's book and the customer's future borrowing.
The same pressure across the region
The Inter-American Development Bank has warned that Caribbean economies face higher debt repayment costs as global interest rates stay high for longer. Trinidad and Tobago's consumer credit book kept rising through 2025 and 2026, and Barbados still carries a heavy interest bill on its public debt. A distress model built on Jamaican card data would need retraining on each country's data, but the method carries over.
Banks already use AI in consumer lending, mostly in marketing and in deciding who to offer a higher limit. The open question is whether they will point the same tools at protecting borrowers.
What banks, the Bank of Jamaica and cardholders should do next
- Card issuers: pause automatic limit increases for customers with three or more consecutive minimum-only payments, and run a monthly affordability model on that group first.
- Card issuers: offer restructuring (a lower rate or a fixed repayment plan) to accounts the distress model ranks as high risk, before the first missed payment.
- The Bank of Jamaica: require quarterly reporting of card balances and arrears by risk band, not only the aggregate total, and publish the summary.
- The Bank of Jamaica: set up a process to evaluate alternative-data scoring tools, including Credit Garden, against independent test data, so lenders know which ones meet a regulatory standard.
- Cardholders carrying a balance: list every card with its rate, pay the highest-rate card first, and ask your bank whether a personal loan at a lower rate could clear it.
Frequently Asked Questions
How can I see what my credit file in Jamaica says?
Request your report from the licensed credit bureaus. Under the Credit Reporting Act, you are entitled to a free copy of your report from each bureau once a year. Check that every account listed is yours and that balances and late payments are correct, and dispute errors with the bureau in writing. Do this before applying for a loan, not after a refusal.
Is it better to pay off the highest-rate card or the smallest balance first?
Paying the highest-rate card first saves the most interest. Paying the smallest balance first clears an account sooner, which some people find easier to stick with. Either way, pay at least the minimum on every card so you avoid late fees, and put every extra dollar on the one target card until it is cleared.
Can a personal loan be cheaper than carrying a credit card balance?
Often, yes. Unsecured personal loans from Jamaican banks and credit unions usually charge well below the 35 to 40 percent on cards, and they have a fixed end date. Compare the total cost, including fees, and ask whether the lender will close or cut the limit on the cleared card. The common mistake is clearing the card with a loan and then running the card balance up again.
What rules apply when a bank uses AI to score my account?
Jamaica's Data Protection Act, in force since December 2023, applies to the personal data banks use for scoring, and the Office of the Information Commissioner oversees it. You can ask your bank what personal data it holds about you and how it is used. A bank using an automated score to cut a limit or refuse credit should be able to explain the main reasons and offer a review by a person.
Where can I complain if my bank raised my limit or refused help unfairly?
Start with the bank's own complaints process and ask for a written reply. If that does not resolve it, the Bank of Jamaica supervises commercial banks and other deposit-taking institutions and accepts complaints about them; its website explains the process. Keep copies of statements, letters and the dates of every call.