On 18 August 2026 the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) put Trinidad on drought watch for September and Tobago on drought warning for October, the more severe of its two classifications. It also warned that drier than usual conditions could run straight into the 2027 dry season with no wet-season recovery in between.
The Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA) meets that forecast with a network that loses roughly half of the water it treats before any customer is billed for it. Three AI tools address the gap without a new reservoir: sensor-based leak detection, district-level demand forecasting, and satellite drought monitoring for farms. A fourth, smart metering, makes the other three more accurate.
Where the drought risk sits in 2026
TTMS recorded dry conditions from May to July 2026 at Crown Point in south-west Tobago and at Valencia in north-east Trinidad, with readings classed as "moderately dry" to "very dry" across south-west Trinidad. Its outlook to November keeps Tobago under a warning and extends the watch over the Caroni River basin and north-western Trinidad. TTMS asked for conservation across water, energy, agriculture and health.
Reservoirs looked healthy at the start of the year. In January 2026 Arena, Navet, Hillsborough and Hollis stood at 98.3, 96.0, 99.5 and 93.8 percent of capacity. Eight months later the forecast had turned, which shows how fast a full system can move toward restrictions when losses are high.
Trinidad has been here before. A 2009 drought linked to El Niño forced WASA into widespread rationing. Climate projections cited at a regional forum in August 2026 suggest the dry season could lengthen by roughly 8 percent by 2050.
Half the treated water earns nothing
At a Caribbean Water and Wastewater Association (CWWA) forum on 15 August 2026, Dr Ronald Roopnarine, acting dean of UWI's Faculty of Food and Agriculture, gave the figure WASA has mostly discussed in general terms. "We cannot manage what we do not accurately measure," he said. "Our best available estimate is that approximately half of the water entering the distribution system generates no revenue."
Non-revenue water includes physical leaks, faulty or missing meters and unbilled use. Well-run utilities keep it at roughly 15 to 25 percent. Figures cited at the same forum put dry-season consumption at around 420 litres per person per day, more than double several other Caribbean territories, but with limited metering WASA cannot separate real household use from water lost on the way.
CWWA executive director Laurayne Lucky told the forum, "this is not simply about managing a drought; it is about building long-term water resilience."
The Core Argument
A network that loses half of what it treats has no cushion when rainfall drops. Household conservation helps, but recovering even a third of WASA's losses would free more treated water than most of what households are being asked to save.
Four AI tools for a utility like WASA
1. Leak detection from acoustic and pressure sensors
Sensors fixed to pipes send continuous sound and pressure readings to a machine learning model that recognises the signature of a leak. The network reports its own anomalies and narrows each one to a short stretch of pipe, so crews dig in the right place.
The regional precedent is The Bahamas. From 2013, the Water and Sewerage Corporation ran a performance-based leak control contract with the firm Miya and cut non-revenue water in New Providence from 56 percent to roughly 22 percent, recovering about 4.2 million gallons a day. In Australia, the utility Unitywater added TaKaDu's anomaly detection software to its network in 2013 and cut average leak repair time from 11 days to 2. WASA's loss rate today is close to where Nassau started.
2. District-level demand forecasting
A model that combines reservoir telemetry, rainfall forecasts and past consumption by district can show which communities will run short weeks ahead. WASA can then target trucking, pressure changes and restrictions by district, and stop treating a well-supplied suburb the same as a community already on the edge.
3. Satellite drought monitoring for farms
Farmers usually learn a drought has hurt a crop after soil moisture has already fallen too far. Satellite vegetation stress and soil moisture indices, the same kind of data the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) uses in regional parametric crop insurance design, can warn farmers on the Caroni Plain and other growing areas weeks earlier.
4. Smart meters that flag continuous flow
Where meters are sparse, a leaking toilet or a cracked pipe on the customer's side looks like consumption. Smart meters with software that flags steady flow at three in the morning tell both WASA and the household that something is leaking now, and they give WASA the data to separate its own losses from customer use.
Tobago's warning needs its own plan
TTMS rated the islands differently for a reason. Trinidad draws on several sources (the Caroni-Arena system, Navet and Hollis), so one weak source has backup. Tobago relies on the smaller Hillsborough Reservoir and local wells and river intakes, with much less capacity to absorb a long shortfall.
Tobago's economic exposure is also sharper. Crown Point, the tourism hub in the south-west, was one of the locations already recording dry conditions. Hotels, guesthouses and restaurants along that coast depend on a supply with little redundancy, so a restriction that is an inconvenience in Trinidad can cost Tobago bookings.
What I cannot tell from public data is how much of Tobago's loss is in the network and how much is in unmetered use. That split decides whether sensors or meters should go in first, and WASA should publish it.
What WASA, TTMS and the government should do before the 2027 dry season
WASA's Dry Season Water Management Plan already commits to maintenance aimed at reducing leaks, plus monitoring and public awareness. It lacks a numeric non-revenue water target with a date.
- WASA board: set and publish a non-revenue water target with a deadline. Start with a baseline audit of the two districts TTMS flagged as driest. Use the International Water Association's water balance method.
- WASA procurement: tender a performance-based leak reduction contract on the Bahamas model. Pay per volume of water recovered and verified, not per hour worked, and deploy sensors first in the flagged districts.
- TTMS and WASA operations: link drought classifications to district demand forecasts. A watch or warning should automatically produce a district-by-district supply forecast, shared with the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management.
- Ministry of Agriculture with CIMH and UWI: send satellite drought alerts to farmers. Begin with a WhatsApp or SMS alert for registered farmers on the Caroni Plain when soil moisture falls below a set threshold.
- Tobago House of Assembly and WASA: fund a Tobago-specific water security plan. Start with metering the Crown Point hotel corridor so losses and use can be separated.
- Households: check for leaks tonight. Read your meter last thing at night and first thing in the morning with no taps running; if the reading moves, you have a leak on your side.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between a drought watch and a drought warning?
A drought watch means conditions are drier than usual and could develop into drought, so monitoring and voluntary conservation should increase. A drought warning is issued with higher confidence that drought will develop or deepen, and it is the stage at which restrictions become more likely. TTMS publishes its drought outlooks and current classifications on its website, alongside its seasonal rainfall forecasts.
How do I report a leak or check water schedules in Trinidad and Tobago?
Report visible leaks on public lines to WASA through its customer contact centre or its official social media channels, with the exact location and a photo. WASA publishes supply schedules and restrictions by area on its website and social media during the dry season. Leaks on your side of the meter are your responsibility to repair, which is why the overnight meter test is worth doing.
Who regulates WASA's performance?
The Regulated Industries Commission (RIC) regulates WASA's service standards and rates. The RIC publishes service standards and reports on utility performance, and it takes complaints that a customer has already raised with WASA without a satisfactory answer. A published non-revenue water target would give the RIC something specific to monitor.
How does Trinidad and Tobago's situation compare with Puerto Rico's in 2026?
Puerto Rico's crisis was more acute: San Juan recorded its driest July in more than 120 years, and the island's water authority, PRASA, began rotating 48-hour rationing for more than 180,000 customer accounts in August 2026. Trinidad and Tobago's advisory is at an earlier stage, a watch and a warning with no national rationing yet. Both utilities lose around half their treated water before billing, which is what turns a dry season into a supply crisis.
Is a performance-based leak contract risky for WASA?
The main risk is a weak baseline. If the starting level of losses is not measured carefully, a contractor can be paid for savings that were never real, or disputes arise over what was recovered. Agree the measurement method, independent verification and the treatment of new connections before signing, and publish the baseline.