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Hurricane BCP
Scenario Tool

Most Caribbean business continuity plans were written for a Category 3 world and are silent on the questions that decide the first 48 hours. Ten audit questions score your plan out of 100. Alongside that, this runs one business unit through a Category 3 and a Category 5 direct hit, ranks your dependencies by how fast each has to come back, finds the week your cash gets tight, and gives you a one-page call sheet to print.

10Audit Questions
100Point Score
2Storm Scenarios
1Page to Print
Score your plan →

What this produces, and what it does not

The output is the starting point a COO and a CFO can argue with. It does not replace a business continuity plan. It gives you a score out of 100 against ten things a working plan has to do, a disruption window your operation has to survive, the order your dependencies have to come back in, the point at which cash becomes the binding constraint, and the calls that have to be made before anyone has time to think.

The score is a self-assessment, so it is only as honest as the answers. It is weighted by consequence: the one-page call sheet and the last exercise carry as much as the scenario modelling, because those are the parts that fail people at 6am. The storm in the panel below draws your exposure. A weak plan turns hard and dark; a strong one loosens and opens its eye.

The windows below are planning bands drawn from what Category 4 and 5 events have actually done to Caribbean infrastructure in recent seasons, not forecasts. Your own utility's restoration history beats any figure on this page, and where you have it you should substitute it. What the tool is for is making the assumptions visible so the disagreement happens now, in a meeting, with everyone awake.

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Your business unit

Run this once per business unit. A plan that averages across units hides the one that fails first.

Smaller single-grid territories restore more slowly, because there is no unaffected region to draw crews and power from.
Cash you could run on with revenue at or near zero, including undrawn facilities you are confident would actually be available after an event.

Answer for the plan you have today. A plan that scores badly here is still worth more than a plan nobody has tested, because you now know which part fails first.

Every lesser scenario is contained inside it. A plan built only for a Category 3 has not been tested.
Ranking by restoration urgency, not by how important each feels. The top three decide whether you can operate at all.
Actual people, actual mobile numbers, and a backup for each one.
Fuel, contractors and transport are cash transactions in the first week whatever your normal terms say.
Generator runtime is the constraint. Every other business calls the same suppliers on the same morning.
A plan that has never been rehearsed is a document.
Networks are among the first things to fail and among the slower things to restore.
A backup in the same building, or the same island, shares the same storm.
Cover has narrowed and priced up across the region. Pricing runs on multi-year models, so a quiet forecast will not help you.
One person, with the authority to call it. A committee cannot be woken at 4am.

Your BCP score

Answer the ten audit questions above. The storm draws your exposure: the worse the plan, the harder it turns.

0 out of 100 Not scored

0 of 10 answered

Fix these first

    The scenario

    Category 3 direct hit

    – working days before this unit operates normally again

      Category 5 direct hit, peak week

      – working days before this unit operates normally again

        Restore in this order

          Where cash becomes the constraint

          First 48 hours

            The one page

            Fill this in, print it, laminate it, and put a copy in the car of everyone named on it. A plan on a server behind a login is not available at 6am with the power out. Printing this page prints only the sheet below.

            Hurricane call sheet

            Call 1: who confirms people are safe
            Call 2: who can authorise spending without a board resolution
            Call 3: who restores the top dependency
            Assembly point and check-in method if mobile networks are down
            Read the method →

            Where the numbers come from

            Restoration bands

            Planning bands reflecting what Category 4 and 5 events have done to Caribbean power, telecoms and road access in recent seasons, including Hurricane Melissa's Category 5 landfall on Jamaica's southern coast in late October 2025. They are planning assumptions, not forecasts. Substitute your own utility's restoration history wherever you have it.

            Season context

            The Atlantic season peaks around 10 September. NOAA's 2026 outlook puts a below-normal season at 55 percent probability with eight to 14 named storms, and Caribbean landfall probability at 35 percent against a 47 percent historical average. Seasonal counts describe how many storms form, not where they go.

            Why Category 5 is the planning case

            Every lesser scenario is contained inside it. A plan that survives a Category 5 direct hit in the peak week survives the others. A plan built only for a Category 3 has not been tested.

            Privacy

            Everything runs in your browser. Nothing you enter is transmitted, stored or logged, and there is no login. Close the tab and it is gone.