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A budget built from a vendor quote prices the software. It does not price the outcome, and the gap between those two figures is where most AI programmes fail. This calculator runs the business case in the other direction. Name the annual value you are targeting in savings, new revenue, and retention, and it returns the investment that target implies, split into direct AI cost, change management, and a risk provision, with the yearly cost to run it and the payback, net, and return over two, three, or five years.
A budget built from a vendor quote tells you what the software costs. It does not tell you what the outcome costs. The gap between those two numbers is where most AI programmes fail: the licence is cheap, the change is not, and nobody budgeted for the change.
This calculator starts where a business case should start, with the result you want. You name the annual value in three lines: money saved, new revenue, and value from keeping customers or staff you would otherwise lose. From there it estimates the investment a target of that size usually requires, and shows you the shape of the spend before you commit to it.
The result is a planning estimate, not a quote. Use it to sanity check a business case, size a budget ask, or decide whether a target is realistic for the approach you have in mind.
Open the Calculator →The model is deliberately simple, and every step runs in your browser. Nothing you type is sent anywhere. Here is the logic, in plain terms.
Add your three value lines: annual savings, annual new revenue, and the annual value of better retention. That total is what you are asking AI to deliver in a year.
A benefit-to-cost ratio, set by how you build (off-the-shelf, integrated, or custom), turns that value into the delivery investment it implies. Ambitious value through custom builds costs more per dollar returned than quick wins from tools you buy.
The investment splits on the BCG rule of thumb: roughly a third goes to the technology and data, and the rest to people and process. Change management carries a floor tied to how many people you are asking to work differently, so a big rollout is never costed as cheap.
An AI risk provision is added on top, sized by your sector and how sensitive your data is. A yearly run cost follows: the recurring share of the technology plus continuing governance, because the spend does not stop at go-live.
The model runs the money month by month over two, three, or five years. Value starts only at go-live and ramps up, and the expected case keeps the share of your target that programmes like yours usually capture. From that you get payback, net, and return, plus the on-target upside.
BCG puts roughly 10 percent of the effort on algorithms, 20 percent on technology and data, and 70 percent on people and process. That split is the backbone of the three buckets.
IDC found organisations realise an average of about 3.70 US dollars for every dollar invested in generative AI, with leaders far higher. The calculator uses this to anchor its benefit-to-cost ratios.
IBM ties ungoverned AI to higher breach costs, including about 670,000 US dollars in added cost where shadow AI is involved. This informs the AI risk provision.
MIT found that about 95 percent of enterprise generative AI pilots produce no measurable profit impact, and only around 5 percent capture real value. That gap is why the calculator shows a realistic case, not just the target.
Gartner expects at least 30 percent of generative AI projects to be abandoned after proof of concept, on poor data, weak controls, or unclear value. IBM has reported only about one in four initiatives hitting the expected return. Both set the realistic-case haircut.
Estimated First-Year Investment
Enter a value target below, then press equals.
The value you want, per year (USD)
Your context
Rough figures are fine. The calculator updates as you type, and nothing you enter leaves your browser.
Enter your target value above and the breakdown will appear here: the three cost buckets, the full line items, your time to value, and your payback period.
Licences, models, data work, and integration. The part a vendor quote usually covers.
Training, process redesign, communication, and the productivity dip while people adjust. The part most budgets miss.
A buffer for governance, security, oversight, and rework, sized to your sector and data sensitivity.
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