The World Meteorological Organization's State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean report, released in May 2026, records record heat, deadly floods, worsening drought and stronger hurricanes across the region in 2025. Heat-related deaths across 17 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are estimated at 13,000 a year. Hurricane Melissa killed 45 people in Jamaica in October 2025 and caused damage equal to about 41 percent of the country's GDP. Floods killed 83 people in Mexico and affected more than 110,000 in Peru and Ecuador, while drought covered 85 percent of Mexico at points in the same year.
For a Caribbean island, the four hazards can now arrive in one year: drought in February, flooding in April, a heatwave in August and a Category 5 hurricane in October. Most disaster systems in the region were designed for one hazard at a time, run by separate agencies issuing separate warnings. AI forecasting and monitoring tools can help join those up. This piece sets out where they are ready, where the claims run ahead of the evidence, and what governments and farmers can do this season.
What the WMO report records
Heat. Heatwaves in 2025 pushed temperatures above 40°C across large parts of the region, and 52.7°C was recorded in Mexico. Most of the 13,000 estimated heat deaths are in Latin America, but Caribbean islands carry specific risks: older populations, outdoor agricultural workers and homes without air conditioning. Heat gets far less attention than hurricanes, and no Caribbean government I know of publishes a heat death count.
Floods and drought together. Climate scientists call the swing between the two hydrological whiplash: the same warming that lengthens dry spells makes the rain heavier when it comes. For farmers it breaks crop planning. For water authorities it means one river basin needs flood protection and drought storage in the same year.
Hurricanes. Melissa made landfall near New Hope in Westmoreland on 28 October 2025 as the first Category 5 storm on record to hit Jamaica, with sustained winds of 185 mph and a minimum pressure of 897 millibars. World Weather Attribution scientists found that climate change increased its intensity through warmer ocean temperatures. The 2026 season opens on 1 June with Jamaica still rebuilding.
Where AI weather tools stand today
AI weather models improved fast in the past three years. Google DeepMind's GraphCast produces a 10-day global forecast in under a minute and matched or beat the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' main model on most measures in published tests. Huawei's Pangu-Weather and NVIDIA's FourCastNet use different designs to similar effect, and the European Centre now runs its own AI model alongside its traditional one.
These models are fast and cheap to run once trained, which matters for small meteorological services. They do not replace forecasters or the physics-based models, and they are weaker at some things that matter here, such as the fine structure of a hurricane's core. Their practical value for the Caribbean is running many forecasts quickly and feeding local impact models for rivers, heat and crops.
One warning system for four hazards
A multi-hazard system would pull satellite, weather station, ocean buoy and coastal sensor data into one platform, and send alerts graded by confidence and severity through SMS to residents, to disaster coordinators, utilities, health services, farmers and water authorities. A household in St Elizabeth would get one alert covering the approaching storm, the flood risk for its river valley and the heat advisory for the week, instead of three messages from three agencies, or none.
Two parts of that are ready now:
- Heat-health warnings. Cities in Europe and South Asia combine temperature and humidity forecasts with maps of where older and vulnerable people live, and send health workers to them before the heat peaks. Kingston, Port of Spain, Bridgetown, Georgetown and Belize City could build the same with existing forecasts and census data.
- River flood forecasting. Google's Flood Hub publishes free AI flood forecasts for river basins in many countries. Coverage of small island rivers is patchy, so disaster offices should check which of their rivers it covers and apply for partner access where it does not.
Rapid intensification, a jump of at least 35 mph in sustained winds within 24 hours, remains the hardest hurricane problem. Research groups, including at NOAA, are testing machine learning models that aim to flag it earlier. The results are promising but experimental, and I would not plan evacuations around them yet.
Farming through drought and flood
Farm-level models that combine weather forecasts, soil moisture readings, crop growth stages and past yields can advise on planting dates, irrigation and harvest timing. They add to an experienced farmer's judgement. The limiting factor in most of the Caribbean is data: few soil moisture sensors, short yield records and weather stations far from the farm.
Jamaica's government has committed J$800 million to build 95 greenhouses across four parishes before the end of 2026. Greenhouses are where AI climate control earns its keep most easily, because temperature, humidity, irrigation and nutrients can all be measured and adjusted. Building sensors and data logging into the contracts now costs far less than retrofitting them.
Guyana's plan to become the region's main food supplier, backed by oil revenue that has lifted its trade with Brazil from US$58 million in 2020 to over US$1 billion in 2026, makes precision irrigation and crop monitoring on its new farmland a regional food security question as much as a national one. The Caribbean imports around 80 percent of its food.
Recovering faster after the storm
Recovery after a major Caribbean storm usually takes years: insurance claims wait months, businesses lose the collateral they need for credit, and governments negotiate emergency loans under pressure. More than 100,000 structures in Jamaica were damaged or destroyed by Melissa.
Satellite and drone imagery with automated damage assessment lets insurers triage claims in days, sending adjusters first to the properties that need inspection and settling clear cases from images. The same imagery gives governments the damage evidence development lenders ask for. Optimisation models can help rank reconstruction work by what it restores, such as which road repair reconnects the most farmland or which school reopening lets the most parents return to work, though those rankings are only as good as the data on who uses what.
Where the argument is weakest
Better forecasts do not help people who have no shelter to go to, no transport out and no reason to trust the warning. Several of the gains above depend on data the region does not yet collect, and on meteorological services that are small and stretched. AI can make the forecasts sharper; it cannot fix a warning chain that breaks at the last mile.
What Caribbean governments and farmers should do this season
- National meteorological services: run an AI model alongside existing guidance. Through the Caribbean Meteorological Organisation, compare AI and traditional forecasts for every 2026 storm and heavy-rain event, and publish the verification at season's end.
- Disaster offices: map Flood Hub coverage this month. List each flood-prone river, check whether Flood Hub forecasts it, and apply for partner access for the rest.
- Health ministries in the five largest Caribbean cities: set a heat-health trigger. Agree the heat index level at which community health workers visit registered older and vulnerable residents, and test it in the next heatwave.
- Jamaica's agriculture ministry: write data logging into the greenhouse contracts. Require temperature, humidity and irrigation sensors with open data export in all 95 greenhouses before handover.
- Finance ministries: prepare post-disaster imagery contracts in advance. Sign standby agreements for satellite or drone damage assessment before the season peaks, so evidence for lenders and insurers arrives within days of a storm.
- CARICOM and the Caribbean Development Bank: scope a shared multi-hazard platform. Commission a costed design with funders such as the Green Climate Fund, the Inter-American Development Bank and the UK FCDO, since no single island can afford to build it alone.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where can I read the WMO report itself?
The State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean report is published free on the World Meteorological Organization's website, usually with a short summary for policymakers. The regional figures for heat deaths, floods and drought cover Latin America and the Caribbean together, so check the country tables before quoting a number as Caribbean-only. National meteorological services often publish their own annual climate summaries with island-level data.
How does CCRIF insurance pay out after a hurricane or earthquake?
CCRIF SPC, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, sells parametric insurance to governments: it pays when a modelled measure of the event, such as wind speed or rainfall over a defined area, crosses a threshold in the policy. There is no loss adjustment, so payouts arrive within 14 days of the event. The payout covers immediate government costs and is not meant to cover all damage, which is why governments pair it with other financing.
Is an AI weather app more accurate than my national weather service?
Not reliably. Many consumer apps repackage global model output without local correction, and they do not issue official warnings. Your national meteorological service and, for hurricanes, the US National Hurricane Center are the authoritative sources in the Caribbean. Use apps for convenience, and act on official warnings.
What is rapid intensification, and why is it hard to forecast?
Rapid intensification is an increase of at least 35 mph in a hurricane's sustained winds within 24 hours. It depends on processes inside the storm's core and on ocean heat below the surface, both of which are hard to observe and model. Forecasts of a hurricane's track have improved far more over the past two decades than forecasts of its intensity, which is why sudden jumps like Melissa's remain dangerous.
What can a small farmer do about drought and flood risk without expensive tools?
Keep a simple record of planting dates, rainfall and yields each season, since that record is what any future advisory tool will need. Follow the seasonal rainfall outlooks published by your national meteorological service and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology. Ask your agricultural extension officer about subsidised rainwater storage and drainage, which protect against both extremes.
Who funds climate resilience projects in the Caribbean?
The main sources are the Green Climate Fund, the Caribbean Development Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, the World Bank and bilateral donors such as the UK FCDO. Most require a government or accredited agency to apply, and they ask for evidence of the risk and the expected benefit. Contact your national climate change or finance ministry, which usually holds the designated authority for Green Climate Fund proposals.