On 19 July 2026, activists held a paddle-out at Jamnesia Surf Camp in Bull Bay, St Andrew, part of a global day of protest against deep-sea mining. In Kingston, the International Seabed Authority (ISA) is holding the second half of its 31st annual session from 29 June to 31 July 2026, working on the rules for mining manganese, nickel and cobalt from the international seabed. Modern sonar has mapped 28.7% of the world's seafloor. Less than 5% has been seen with a camera, and NOAA puts direct sampling at roughly 0.001%.
Most of the argument in Kingston is about that missing data. Those asking for a pause say the regulator cannot set harm thresholds for an environment it has not measured. AI tools that speed up seabed mapping and monitoring now exist in operating projects, and Jamaica, as host, is well placed to push for them to be written into the code.
What is being negotiated in Kingston
The Legal and Technical Commission met in March, and the Council reconvened at ISA headquarters from late June to the end of July to advance the mining code: the standards and guidelines for commercial extraction if it is ever permitted. The ISA has 170 members, 169 states plus the European Union, and the code will govern every future licence application.
On 21 July, environmental groups renewed their call for Jamaica to back a moratorium. Dr Theresa Rodriguez-Moodie, chief executive of the Jamaica Environment Trust, said: "We know more about outer space than we know about the deep sea." Matthew Gianni of the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition and Davia Hylton of the Stronger Caribbean Together Network backed the call. More than 40 governments, including Mexico, Brazil and the United Kingdom, support a moratorium, a precautionary pause or a ban.
Why a harm threshold needs a baseline
A mining code has to define unacceptable environmental harm, and harm is measured against a baseline. The nodule fields under consideration host species that in many cases have never been catalogued. Nobody knows how they respond to the sediment plume a collector vehicle stirs up as it crosses the seabed.
| Measure | Share of global seafloor |
|---|---|
| Mapped with modern multibeam sonar | 28.7% |
| Seen by camera or human eye | Less than 5% |
| Directly sampled and analysed (NOAA estimate) | About 0.001% |
This has stalled the code for years. In 2026 the tools to close the gap have moved from papers into projects, which changes what "we need more time to study this" should mean in practice.
The United States is moving outside the ISA
The United States never ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, so it does not accept the ISA's exclusive jurisdiction over the international seabed. The sequence so far:
- 24 April 2025: President Trump signed the executive order "Unleashing America's Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources", directing agencies to fast-track permits under the 1980 Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act.
- 21 January 2026: NOAA finalised a rule letting companies apply for an exploration licence and a commercial recovery permit in one process.
- 22 January 2026: The Metals Company USA applied for 65,000 square kilometres of the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, between Hawaii and Mexico, which ISA members treat as international seabed.
- March 2026: NOAA found the application in substantial compliance with US law.
None of this required a vote in Kingston. It means a weak code finished without data will be tested quickly, by a contractor disputing findings nobody can independently check.
Why the data matters for small states
A code written without a seafloor baseline is harder to enforce and easier to challenge in court. Caribbean states have the least capacity to dispute a mining company's own environmental data, so they gain most from an independent baseline.
Three things AI changes about seabed science
Faster review of footage. Plymouth Marine Laboratory and the University of Plymouth launched the Deep Vision project in March 2026, funded through the Bezos Earth Fund's AI for Climate and Nature Grand Challenge, to map vulnerable marine ecosystems across the Atlantic. Its models detect indicator species such as deep-sea corals and sponges in camera and ROV footage, so specialists review flagged frames instead of months of video. NOAA Ocean Exploration is running a 28-day expedition in July and August 2026 using ROVs to survey unexplored deep habitats.
First-pass maps without a ship on every line. Researchers have shown that satellite-derived bathymetry, a machine learning method that extends limited sonar surveys using satellite imagery, can transfer between areas. It works only in water shallow and clear enough for light to reach the bottom, so it helps with coastal and shelf mapping, not abyssal nodule fields. For the deep seabed, AI speeds up what ships and ROVs collect rather than replacing them.
Independent monitoring. Cross-referencing vessel transponder data and satellite imagery against licensed blocks can flag a support vessel operating outside its permit area. Maritime domain awareness platforms already do this for fishing fleets. For a Caribbean state with no deep-water navy, a shared record like this is the only practical way to check compliance.
What Jamaica can offer as host
Jamaica has hosted the ISA since 16 November 1994, when the Convention entered into force, a 32-year convening role few small states have. The ISA already runs a programme called Advancing Caribbean Blue Economy Through Deep-Sea Research, which builds regional research capacity and trains Caribbean women scientists in deep-sea work. UWI's Discovery Bay Marine Laboratory on the north coast has the field access and scientific links a mapping and monitoring programme needs.
Jamaica cannot fund global seafloor mapping alone, and nor could most ISA members. It can convene the ISA, UWI and the labs already doing AI ocean mapping, and press for the code to make AI-accelerated baseline mapping a funded condition of any licence.
Better data does not settle the underlying question. A fully mapped seafloor still leaves a values judgement about how much risk a barely understood deep-sea environment should carry for minerals that could in some cases be recycled or sourced on land. My argument is weakest here: it assumes that more data will make negotiators more careful, and it may instead give mining applicants a faster route to approval.
What Jamaica and the ISA should do next
- Jamaica's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade: propose code language requiring that a stated share of any proposed mining block be mapped and classified, using published methods, before extraction, with a public deadline.
- The ISA Council: commission an independent vessel and licence-area monitoring system run by or alongside the ISA, so compliance does not rest on contractor self-reporting.
- UWI and the Discovery Bay Marine Laboratory: approach Deep Vision and NOAA Ocean Exploration for data-sharing and training partnerships, starting with two or three Caribbean researchers on AI footage classification.
- The ISA secretariat: extend the Caribbean blue economy programme to include AI training for image classification and survey analysis, measured by the number of trained Caribbean scientists each year.
- Caribbean foreign ministries: agree a common CARICOM position on baseline data before the next Council meeting, so small states negotiate as a bloc.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are polymetallic nodules, and where is the Clarion-Clipperton Zone?
Polymetallic nodules are potato-sized lumps on the abyssal seabed, formed over millions of years, containing manganese, nickel, copper and cobalt. The Clarion-Clipperton Zone is a vast area of the Pacific floor between Hawaii and Mexico, at depths of roughly 4,000 to 5,500 metres, where the ISA has issued most of its nodule exploration contracts.
Why is the mining code overdue?
In 2021 Nauru, which sponsors a subsidiary of The Metals Company, triggered the so-called two-year rule in the 1994 Implementation Agreement, which asks the ISA to complete exploitation regulations within two years of such a request. That deadline passed in July 2023 without a finished code. Member states still disagree on whether a contractor could be approved in the meantime.
Who can apply to mine the international seabed?
Under the ISA system, a company must be sponsored by a state that is party to the Law of the Sea Convention, and the sponsoring state takes on responsibility for its compliance. Several Pacific island states, including Nauru and Tonga, sponsor company subsidiaries. The US route under its 1980 law sits outside this system, which is why most ISA members dispute it.
How can the public follow what the ISA decides?
The ISA publishes session documents, draft regulations and Council decisions on its website, isa.org.jm, and webcasts many meetings. Accredited observers, including environmental groups, can attend and make statements. In Jamaica, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade handles the government's position, so questions about how Jamaica votes go there.
How can a Caribbean scientist get into deep-sea research?
Start with the ISA's capacity development programmes, which include contractor training placements and the Caribbean deep-sea research initiative, both listed on the ISA website. UWI's marine science departments and the Discovery Bay Marine Laboratory are the regional entry points for fieldwork. Skills in image classification and geospatial analysis are increasingly what survey teams ask for.