Shoppers in Saint Lucia no longer pay value-added tax on a list of everyday goods. In Barbados, pensioners have a new cost-of-living allowance and welfare rates are up by 30%. Other member states are weighing fuel tax cuts and freight subsidies. CARICOM's Heads of Government compared those measures when they met in Gros Islet, Saint Lucia, from 5 to 8 July 2026 for their fifty-first regular conference, and treated the cost of living as a regional problem. The new chair, Saint Lucia's Prime Minister Philip J. Pierre, led the comparison. On 7 July, French Guiana became CARICOM's eighth associate member.
The decision with the longest reach was an old one: a regional ferry to cut the cost of moving goods between member states. CARICOM has proposed a version of it for over a decade, and none has become a working route. The problems that stopped earlier attempts are logistics problems, and logistics is where AI tools are already in daily use elsewhere.
Freight is a large share of Caribbean prices
Logistics costs in Caribbean Small Island Developing States run at 16 to 26% of GDP, against an OECD benchmark of about 9%. Port handling charges and ocean freight rates in the region are two to three times the global average, and freight can make up as much as 35% of a product's landed price.
CARICOM's food import bill is above US$6 billion a year. The Vision 25 by 2025 plan to cut it by a quarter was pushed back to 2030 after Hurricane Beryl and supply chain disruption stalled progress. Trade between member states covers only 5 to 10% of the region's food imports, and the rest arrives from outside at outside freight rates.
VAT relief lowers the price at the till once. It does nothing to the freight cost built into a bag of rice in Roseau or a box of nails in Castries.
The Galleons Passage pilot and why earlier ferries failed
Leaders agreed to put the Galleons Passage, a catamaran owned by the Trinidad and Tobago government, on a trial cargo and passenger route between Trinidad and Guyana, aiming for fares under US$100 and sailings within months. The vessel is operated by the Trinidad and Tobago Inter-Island Transportation Company, is 74 metres long, and carries up to 400 passengers and 60 vehicles. It already runs the sea bridge between Port of Spain and Scarborough. Using an existing vessel to prove the route before buying new ones is sensible.
Earlier attempts failed for recurring reasons that regional shipping sources cite each time a timeline slips:
- Vessels. One privately financed attempt found a vessel and conditional financing, then collapsed when the regulatory framework was never completed. Another stalled when its vessel went into dry dock with no replacement.
- Ports. Berths were not ready to take roll-on, roll-off cargo on a fixed timetable.
- Borders. Customs and immigration procedures differed enough between states that goods sat at each port and the freight saving disappeared.
- Finance. After repeated failures, banks and private investors grew wary of the whole idea.
Economists covering the pilot have added a design point: the service pays only if cargo comes before passengers and the route runs as a loop through several ports and transshipment hubs, what planners call a ring route, instead of a shuttle between two islands.
Four AI tools that address those failures
Demand forecasting
A ring route works only if planners know months ahead how much cargo will move between which ports in which weeks. Forecasting models trained on customs trade records, seasonal consumption and weather can estimate that before the first sailing, then update as bookings arrive. The alternative is a fixed timetable and the hope that enough cargo turns up to cover fuel.
Pricing and routing
Airlines and container lines have used revenue management software for years to fill space that would otherwise travel empty. On a Caribbean ferry that means lower rates to fill the vehicle deck in quiet weeks, capped fares in busy ones, and port calls reordered when one island's volume jumps and another's falls.
Customs pre-clearance
Pre-clearance systems check manifests and passenger documents before a vessel docks, so inspections can target the few loads that need them. CARICOM's Single Domestic Space commitments already assume something like this. What is missing is the data link that lets several national customs systems exchange manifests in close to real time.
Predictive maintenance
The pilot fails if the Galleons Passage is out of service. Continuous monitoring of engine, hull and equipment data can flag developing faults weeks ahead, so repairs are planned into the schedule. Large ports in the region, including Kingston Freeport Terminal in Jamaica, already run computerised maintenance management on their crane fleets, so the skills exist locally.
Why small volumes leave no room for guesswork
A shipping line on the US Gulf Coast can absorb a badly forecast route for a season. One ferry serving a handful of small markets cannot. A wrong cargo estimate, a customs delay that adds two days to a turnaround or a missed maintenance window can make the route lose money within months, and every loss pushes fares away from the affordability target that justified the service. Planning tools cannot widen those margins, but they cut the number of avoidable mistakes made inside them.
The core argument
CARICOM has a vessel, political agreement and a cost-of-living crisis pushing it to act. Earlier ferries stopped on forecasting, customs friction and maintenance. Software for all three is in routine use in other ports and shipping lines, and it costs far less than another failed pilot.
The same tools serve the food import target and price monitoring
Demand forecasting and route planning built for the ferry apply directly to Vision 25 by 2030. A Barbadian supermarket often finds it cheaper and more predictable to import produce from Florida than to buy from a farm in Guyana or Belize, because intra-regional freight is unreliable. A planned, reliable ferry loop changes that calculation.
Price monitoring is a smaller project that could start before the first sailing. Tracking the landed cost of essential goods against shelf prices across the region would give consumer protection agencies evidence of excessive mark-ups, where today they rely on complaints. What I cannot tell you is whether a single government-owned vessel can carry enough cargo to shift prices noticeably. That depends on volumes nobody has yet published.
What CARICOM, customs and shippers should do next
- The CARICOM Secretariat and the Caribbean Development Bank: fund a demand-forecasting and route study this quarter, before further money goes into vessels or ports, using at least three years of customs trade records by product code for every port on the proposed loop.
- The University of the West Indies and the Caribbean Shipping Association: build that model together, pairing UWI's data science staff with the Association's knowledge of each port, and publish the assumptions.
- Customs authorities in Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana: agree a shared electronic manifest format and exchange manifests at least 48 hours before each arrival from the first pilot sailing.
- The Trinidad and Tobago Inter-Island Transportation Company: fit engine and equipment monitoring before the Guyana route starts, and publish monthly figures on cargo carried, deck space filled, on-time departures and port turnaround.
- National consumer affairs agencies: start tracking landed cost against shelf price for 20 staple goods, so the effect of the ferry on prices can be measured, not assumed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is roll-on, roll-off cargo and why does it matter for this ferry?
Roll-on, roll-off (ro-ro) means trucks and trailers drive on and off the vessel under their own power, with no cranes. It suits a ferry like the Galleons Passage because loading is fast and small shippers can send a single truckload. The limit is the port: each berth needs a ramp or linkspan that matches the vessel, and ports that lack one cannot take scheduled ro-ro calls.
Do Caribbean customs systems already share a common platform?
Many CARICOM customs administrations, including those of Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana, run versions of ASYCUDA, the customs software developed by UNCTAD. A shared underlying system makes electronic manifest exchange easier, but each country configures it differently, so an agreed data format and legal authority to share are still needed. That agreement is a policy task more than a software one.
How can a small exporter qualify for duty-free shipment within CARICOM?
Goods that meet CARICOM rules of origin under the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas enter other member states free of import duty. The exporter needs a CARICOM certificate of origin, usually issued through the national trade ministry or chamber of commerce, and food and plant products also need phytosanitary or health certificates from the exporting country. Missing paperwork is the most common reason regional shipments are held at the port.
What data would a ferry demand forecast need, and who holds it?
The core inputs are customs import and export records by product code and port, vessel call and cargo tonnage data from port authorities, and booking data from shipping lines serving the same routes. National statistics offices publish aggregated trade figures, but the detailed records sit with customs departments, so a data-sharing agreement is the first step. Shipping lines usually share booking data only under confidentiality terms.
How will we know whether the ferry pilot is working?
Watch five numbers each month: tonnes of cargo carried, share of deck space filled per sailing, on-time departures, hours spent in port per call, and the freight rate per truckload compared with existing container services. A route that fills less than half its cargo deck after six months is unlikely to cover costs without subsidy. Ask the operator and CARICOM to publish these figures.