Thomas Waterman Wood, A Bit of War History: The Veteran, 1866. The Metropolitan Museum of Art, public domain.
Guyana's Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo told the 124th Special Meeting of COTED in Georgetown on 26 March 2026 that the war involving Iran, Israel and the United States was already disrupting energy markets and would soon reach Caribbean economies. He pointed to fuel: some CARICOM states spend more than 10 percent of GDP on fuel imports. When crude rises because of a conflict on the other side of the world, Caribbean households pay at the pump and on the electricity bill within weeks.
AI will not lower the oil price. It can shorten the time between a shock and a government's response, and it can give a small finance ministry some of the analytical capacity of a large one. This piece sets out where that holds, where it does not, and what to set up now.
Which CARICOM economies are most exposed, and through which channel
Exposure differs by country, and it runs through four channels:
| Channel | Most exposed | How the shock arrives |
|---|---|---|
| Imported energy | Jamaica, Barbados, Haiti, the Eastern Caribbean states, The Bahamas | Electricity tariffs with fuel pass-through, transport fares, manufacturing costs |
| Tourism | The most tourism-dependent economies, such as Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Saint Lucia, Barbados and Grenada | Higher airfares and weaker travel demand in source markets |
| Imported food | Most member states, which import the majority of what they eat | Freight rates, rerouted shipping, commodity prices on supermarket shelves |
| Thin fiscal buffers | Governments still rebuilding after the pandemic | Little room for fuel subsidies or tax relief without new borrowing |
Trinidad and Tobago, as an energy exporter, gains revenue when prices rise, although it still imports food and faces volatile markets. Guyana's oil output gives it a buffer too. The two producers and the importers want different things from the same price move, which complicates any single regional position.
Food is the channel CARICOM has already set a number against. Its "25 by 2025" initiative set a target to cut the regional food import bill by 25 percent by 2025. The progress reports on that target are the first place to look for which member states have reduced their exposure.
Where AI helps in a price shock, and where it does not
The useful applications are the unglamorous ones: scenario models, monitoring and alerts. Precise price prediction is the weak spot. Oil futures markets absorb geopolitical news within minutes, and I would not trust any model that claims to beat them weeks ahead. Treat AI as a way to prepare for a range of prices, not to pick one.
Fiscal scenarios for finance ministries
This is the highest-value use. A ministry analyst can build the core model in a spreadsheet and use an AI assistant to extend it, check formulas and write the scenario notes. The arithmetic is simple: annual fuel import volume multiplied by price gives the import bill, and each scenario flows through to subsidies, electricity tariffs, the current account and the deficit. Run it at $80, $100, $120 and $150 a barrel and update it monthly.
Supply chain alerts for importers
AI agents can watch shipping schedules, port congestion notices and carrier announcements, and alert importers when a regular route slips. Large importers and distributors gain most, because a two-week warning is enough to place an order with a second supplier before shelves empty. Smaller firms can get part of this by asking their freight forwarder for weekly route updates and summarising them with an AI assistant.
Price monitoring for consumer protection
Consumer protection agencies already collect retail prices. Jamaica's Consumer Affairs Commission, for example, publishes regular price surveys. AI tools can clean and compare those collections faster, flag products whose prices jump beyond the change in import costs, and give agencies earlier evidence of gouging. Central banks can use the same data as an early read on inflation between official CPI releases.
Tourism demand
Hotels and tourism boards can combine booking pace, airline seat capacity and search data to see a slowdown in a source market weeks before occupancy falls. The practical response is to move marketing spend to markets that are holding up. This works best when hotels share booking data with the tourism board, which many do not do today.
What earlier shocks teach
The Caribbean has been here in 1973, in 2008 and in 2020. Each time the same weaknesses showed: imported energy, imported food, concentration in tourism and thin fiscal buffers. Each time most governments responded after the shock arrived, because they had no prepared scenarios to act on.
Prepared scenarios are cheap now. What is still missing is data sharing. A regional monitor is only as good as the price, shipping and booking data member states and firms are willing to put into it, and I have not seen a CARICOM agreement that commits them to do so.
What to do before the next price spike
- Each finance ministry: assign one analyst to build a fuel price scenario model at $80, $100, $120 and $150 a barrel, covering the import bill, subsidies, tariffs and the deficit. A first version takes about a week with a spreadsheet and an AI assistant; update it on the first working day of each month.
- Central banks and statistics offices: agree a weekly retail price feed for 30 to 50 staple items, drawing on the price data consumer agencies already collect, so inflation pressure shows up before the monthly CPI.
- The CARICOM Secretariat: propose a data-sharing protocol for fuel, freight and food prices among member states, then build a shared monitor on top of it. The protocol comes first; without it the monitor has nothing to show.
- Utilities and energy ministries: rerun renewable energy business cases using the high-price scenarios, since every megawatt-hour from solar or wind is one that no oil shock can reprice.
- Importers and distributors: list your ten most important products, name a second supplier for each, and set an alert for delays on your usual shipping routes. Do it this month, while prices are still moving.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is COTED, and why does a warning there matter?
COTED is CARICOM's Council for Trade and Economic Development, the body where member states' trade and economy ministers coordinate regional trade policy, including the single market. A warning delivered there is addressed to the ministers who set tariffs, trade rules and regional responses, so it is a signal to prepare policy, not just commentary. Special meetings like the 124th are called outside the regular schedule to deal with a specific issue.
Why do electricity bills rise so quickly after an oil price spike?
Most Caribbean utilities pass fuel costs straight through to customers through a separate fuel charge that is recalculated regularly, often monthly. In Jamaica the Office of Utilities Regulation oversees JPS tariffs, and in Barbados the Fair Trading Commission regulates the electricity tariff, so those regulators' published tariff schedules are where to check how the fuel charge is calculated. Because the pass-through is mechanical, a price spike in the world market can appear on household bills within one or two billing cycles.
Can AI predict where oil prices are going?
Not reliably, and a vendor who claims otherwise should be asked for a record of past forecasts. Futures markets already reflect what traders know about a conflict, so the published futures curve is a better free baseline than most models. Use AI to build and update scenarios around that baseline, and to monitor shipping and supply news, instead of to pick a single number.
What data does a small finance ministry need to build a fuel price scenario model?
Four inputs cover most of it: fuel import volumes by product from customs or the statistics office, the electricity generation mix from the utility, the budget lines for any fuel or electricity subsidies, and the tax take from fuel duties. Unpublished budget figures should not go into free consumer AI tools; use an enterprise account with data retention switched off, or keep the sensitive numbers in the spreadsheet and ask the AI only about the formulas.
How should a small importer or retailer respond when shipping costs jump?
Recalculate the landed cost of each product, including freight, insurance and duty, and reprice item by item, not with a flat increase across the shop. Keep a record of the cost change behind each new price, because consumer protection agencies look for increases that exceed the underlying cost rise. An AI assistant can do the landed-cost arithmetic from your supplier invoices in minutes if you give it the figures in a table.
"Jagdeo is right that global conflicts will reach Caribbean wallets. Scenario models, price monitoring and shipping alerts are available right now, and a finance ministry can build the first one in a week." - Adrian Dunkley, AI Boss